Looking at 2009 so far

By Meteorologist Rich Hoffman

I hope all is well in you life as we wrap up the first month of 2009. It was a cold month. Temperatures averaged about 4.5 degrees below normal. We didn't even get our normal January thaw. We didn't even break the 50 degree mark at Islip--the highest was 46 on the 28th. (Islip-ISP one spot where records are kept on LI - LI Climate ) The January temperature broke 60 degrees in the past 4 years. January 2005 - 60, 2006 - 62,
2007 - 68, 2008 - 64.

Some people are disappointed by the lack of a big snow storm so far this year.  I am one of them, but for every person who loves snow storms there is a person who doesn't like them. When forecasting snow storms we have to forecast with our head and weather knowledge, not what we want or wish for. Bill Korbel wrote a good blog on how hard it is to forecast snow. Take a look.

Ground hog day is Monday, so I wonder if we will see a change in the weather pattern. Hmmmm, what will Holtsville Hal or Malverne Mel or Melissa say about the cold winter so far? No matter what, Spring starts on March 20th at 7:44am

Starting off February, if you're looking to start the month on a refreshing note, head to Long Beach for the 9th Annual Polar Bear Plunge. In the process of raising money for the Make A Wish Foundation, they are also looking to set a Guinness World Record for the Largest Polar Bear Dip/Swim. You must sign a waiver.  http://www.longbeachpolarbears.org/index.htm
When: February 1st 1pm
Where: Riverside Blvd and East Broadway, Long Beach
I have done the event the past 2 years and its a lot of fun for a great cause. The weather for the event, air temperatures around 35 with mostly sunny skies, Water temperature near 39.

I do see February being a bit stormier as we go from the cold winter months to the warmer months of spring. I am watching the track of a storm for Monday night into Wednesday. As of now it looks to bring Long Island warm weather, heavy rains, and strong winds. If the storm track changes over the weekend and moves 75 miles east, it could be our big snow maker. The past 2 days the Computer models have been forecasting a major storm to move up the coast. The newest 12z data, from 7am Friday Jan 30th is hinting at an eastward track... Stay tuned..

Some computer model weather links
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

http://66.70.209.226/weather/snow/kisp.txt

http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/model/model.html

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US

There is still even a chance this goes right out to sea as well.

I noticed I haven't been keeping up with my blogs here. I will do more in 2009. I also post a lot of weather information on the NEWS 12 WEATHER FORUM.

Don't forget when we are in STORM WATCH mode we need your help, and you can be a part of our "Hyper local Weather" by sending your storm reports to [email protected]

When severe weather strikes, keep it tuned to News12 for the very latest and local weather information.  Away from a TV during the day? Listen to us via mobile phone: 646-273-1212 for News12 to Go. Also, log onto news12.com for the latest weather updates including Live Dual Doppler 12 and to check for any closings or delays.

Comments

[Peggy Lazenby]

My birthday is in January and my mom always told me I was born on 'the coldest day of the year before she passed away in September of 1990. I remember a lot more snow here on Long Island during the months of January and February when I wa a little girl. We lived in Levittown and a lot of times the snow came up to the windows of our house during those snowstorms. When I was six years old, we were one of the first families to move to Massapequa and I can still remember sledding down the "mountains of snow" during the winter.(The mountains were formed by huge piles of dirt behind our house.)We always had so much fun with our friends sledding down those "mountains"!